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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 21st, 2022–Feb 22nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Hazard is elevated in the far north of the region where strong northeast wind on Tuesday is expected to redistribute 15-20 cm of storm snow from the weekend. 

For the rest of the region, the widespread melt-freeze crust remains near the surface and avalanches remain unlikely. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Arctic high pressure brings a couple more days of cold conditions before returning to seasonal temperatures by Thursday. 

Monday Night: Clear, moderate to strong NE wind, treeline low around -16 °C.

Tuesday: Sunny, strong NE wind, treeline high around -8 °C.

Wednesday: Mainly sunny with some cloud in the late afternoon, strong NW wind, treeline high around -3 °C.

Thursday: Sunny, light N wind, treeline high around +2 °C.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches have been reported recently. A widespread surface crust is making avalanches unlikely for the south of the region. In the far north of the region which received new snow over the weekend, small wind slabs may be forming with ongoing outflow winds. 

Snowpack Summary

Through most of the region, 1-5 cm of recent storm snow sits on a thick and supportive crust which caps the snowpack on all aspects and elevations. The exception is the far north of the region around Mt. Cain where the weekend storm produced as much as 20 cm. Thin wind slabs may be forming on Tuesday in exposed high elevation terrain with winds forecast to become strong from the northeast. 

The widespread late-January crust is now down 10-60 cm and is well bonded to the surrounding snow. The mid and lower snowpack is considered well settled and strong. 

Shallow snow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks exposed at or just below the snow surface.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.