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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 12th, 2023–Apr 13th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Blue River, Clearwater, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, Shuswap, Central Selkirk, Gold, Kokanee, North Okanagan, Valhalla, Whatshan.

It's easier to list the avalanche problems you don't need to think about on Thursday than the ones you do! Storm slabs gradually giving way to lingering wind slabs and dangerous persistent layers, wet snow problems where the sun pokes out, all while loaded cornices loom over shallow start zones and basal facets. With a scene this complex, it's OK to err on the side of simpler terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A serious avalanche incident occurred in the backcountry just east of Revelstoke on Wednesday. Details are available here.

Otherwise, reports from Monday and Tuesday included many more storm slab and wind slab avalanches, several that were noted for being triggered remotely (from a distance) and a significant number of avalanches attributed to the problematic late-March and early April failure planes discussed in our snowpack summary, now buried under the full depth of recent snowfall. The presence of surface hoar and facets in particular has been noted in some of the more prominent reports of touchy conditions from the past few days.

Saturday and Sunday saw an overall increase in wind slab and storm slab activity as the storm touched down in the region. This MIN gives a good sense of the conditions initially at play.

Looking forward, the need for backcountry travelers to manage a wide range of avalanche concerns that vary by elevation and aspect will continue through Thursday at least. Although the most recent storm interface may bond up relatively quickly, deeper persistent interfaces formed in advance of the storm remain in question, triggerable wind slabs are now perched on many steep features, and wet loose or even wet slab potential will ramp up with daytime warming - especially as recent snow sees its first rays of spring sunshine. Meanwhile, the weak basal snowpack persisting in thin alpine start zones continues to adjust as cornices loom above.

Snowpack Summary

The early week storm brought a final, variable, trace to 30 cm of new snow to the region Tuesday night. In most areas below 2000 m these later accumulations overlie a rain crust that formed mid-storm. At higher elevations it brought dry storm snow accumulations to totals around 30-60 cm.

All this snow overlies either a widespread melt-freeze crust buried April 7, a weak interface of faceted snow and surface hoar buried at the end of March, or some combination of the two. As surface instabilities settle out, both of these interfaces remain in question with numerous recent avalanches attributed to each and with the snowpack still adjusting to the load.

The mid-snowpack is generally strong but the lower snowpack is a different story. The November facets are still prominent at the base of the snowpack. This layer remains a concern in rocky, shallow, or thin to thick snowpack areas at treeline and above.

Weather Summary

Wednesday night

Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing a trace to 5 cm of new snow except around upper Kootenay Lake and Jumbo Pass where 20-30 cm of new snow may accumulate. Light to moderate northwest winds.

Thursday

Mainly sunny. Light west or southwest winds increasing in late afternoon. Treeline high temperatures around -1 with freezing levels to 1400-1600 m.

Friday

Cloudy with isolated flurries bringing a trace to 5 cm of new snow. Light southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around 0 with freezing levels to around 1700 m.

Saturday

Becoming cloudy. Light to moderate south winds increasing over the day and evening. Treeline high temperatures around 0 with freezing levels to 1800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.
  • In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.