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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 28th, 2021–Mar 1st, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Use caution transitioning into wind affected terrain and watch for signs of slab development, such as shooting cracks.

Weather Forecast

This past week we've been receiving significantly more snow than forecast.

Today: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries accumulating to 2cm. Freezing level 1300m. Winds SW-25km/h

Tonight: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Freezing level 1000m. Winds SW-30km/h.

Monday: Mainly cloudy. Freezing level 1300. Winds SW-35km/h gusting to 80km/h.

Snowpack Summary

More snow has fallen on the west end of the park than east. Since Wednesday, up to 70cm has been redistributed by sustained moderate S'ly wind.  The Feb 14 drought interface is down ~1m in sheltered areas; this interface exists as a wind crust in exposed areas near the Pass, and buried windslabs, facets, or a thin suncrust as you move East or West.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday, a solar induced natural avalanche cycle occurred from steep south aspects in the alpine to size 2.5, as well as a smaller wind-induced cycle from steep northerly aspects to size 2.0. Several storm slabs from size 1.5-3.0 were triggered by Fridays convective snowfall, most notably 2 size 3.0s from Manix and Gunners (S aspects).

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.