Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2026–Jan 17th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Rockies, East Kakwa, Tumbler.

Warm temperatures and sun are forecast for the alpine on Saturday 😎

Avoid slopes with cornices overhead, and limit exposure to slopes that become moist or wet.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. We suspect natural avalanche activity occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday due to high freezing levels and rain.

Snowpack Summary

A widespread melt-freeze crust extends up to at least 2200 m. In the high alpine, any dry snow is likely wind affected and firm. Sun and warm temperatures on Saturday are likely to moisten dry snow and soften crusts, especially on steep south-facing slopes. Large, overhanging cornices linger.

The prominent mid-December facet/crust layer is buried 50 to 170 cm deep. Triggering the crust is considered unlikely, except with large loads or in thin snowpack areas.

In thin snowpack areas, faceted grains or depth hoar may exist at the base of the snowpack. Snowpack depths are well above average for this time of year, around 2 m at treeline.

Weather Summary

Friday Night
Clear skies. 50 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Above freezing layer 1800 to 3000 m.

Saturday
Sunny. 40 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 1 °C. Alpine high temperature 5°C. Freezing level 3500 m.

Sunday
Mix of sun and clouds. 20 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.

Monday
Mostly sunny. 50 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Above freezing layer 2000 to 3000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.
Limit exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
Avoid travelling on slopes below cornices.
Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present in the snowpack.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.