Avalanche forecast

Vancouver Island

Jan 12 – 13, 2026Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable

Highlights

Warming temperatures and heavy rain will continue weakening the snowpack and increasing loose wet avalanche activity.

Seek non avalanche terrain during periods of high avalanche danger.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Higher elevations may continue to receive precipitation as snow. In these areas, storm slabs formation is likely, especially where wind has redistributed new snow into deeper deposits.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Both natural and rider-triggered avalanches are likely to very likely anywhere the upper snowpack is being saturated by rain.

Confidence

Moderate

  • Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.
  • Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, several small (size 1) wind slab avalanches where observed near tree line on north west aspect terrain.

Additional observation of sluffing of small loose wet avalanches on very steep north aspect terrain was reported.

Looking ahead, rain is likely to destabilize the upper snowpack, increasing the likelihood of wet loose avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Rainfall and rising temperatures continue. Surface snow and the upper snowpack is becoming wet from rain at all elevations with exception of the upper alpine where it may continue as wet snow.

A thick crust formed last weekend is now buried beneath 30 to 50 cm of well settled wet snow.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally moist, well-settled, and dense, with average depths of 100–150 cm at treeline.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night
Cloudy. 70 to 135 mm of rain at treeline. 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 5 °C. Freezing level 2300 m.

Monday
Cloudy. 20 to 65 mm of rain at treeline. 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 5 °C. Freezing level 2300 m.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. 10 to 30 mm of rain at treeline. 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 6 °C. Freezing level 3100 m.

Wednesday
Mix of sun and clouds. 1 to 5 mm of rain at treeline. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 4 °C. Freezing level 2600 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Loose avalanches may start small, but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Regions covered