Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2026–Jan 12th, 2026

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Warming temperatures and heavy rain will continue weakening the snowpack and increasing loose wet avalanche activity.

Seek non avalanche terrain during periods of high avalanche danger.

Confidence

Moderate

Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.
Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, several small (size 1) wind slab avalanches where observed near tree line on north west aspect terrain.

Additional observation of sluffing of small loose wet avalanches on very steep north aspect terrain was reported.

Looking ahead, rain is likely to destabilize the upper snowpack, increasing the likelihood of wet loose avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Rainfall and rising temperatures continue. Surface snow and the upper snowpack is becoming wet from rain at all elevations with exception of the upper alpine where it may continue as wet snow.

A thick crust formed last weekend is now buried beneath 30 to 50 cm of well settled wet snow.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally moist, well-settled, and dense, with average depths of 100–150 cm at treeline.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night
Cloudy. 70 to 135 mm of rain at treeline. 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 5 °C. Freezing level 2300 m.

Monday
Cloudy. 20 to 65 mm of rain at treeline. 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 5 °C. Freezing level 2300 m.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. 10 to 30 mm of rain at treeline. 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 6 °C. Freezing level 3100 m.

Wednesday
Mix of sun and clouds. 1 to 5 mm of rain at treeline. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 4 °C. Freezing level 2600 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Loose avalanches may start small, but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.