Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2026–Jan 14th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

There is uncertainty on how prolonged warming and sun will impact the snowpack on Wednesday.

Don't let good weather lure you into dangerous terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, skiers triggered small (size 1) wind slabs in alpine terrain.

On Tuesday, skiers triggered wet loose avalanches (size 1) from all aspects and elevations. Natural wet loose avalanches up to size 2 were observed from steep alpine terrain.

Looking forward to Wednesday, sun and warm temperatures will increase the likelihood of both natural and human-triggered avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Rain and warm temperatures have created a wet snow surface to at least 2400 m. Strong southwesterly winds have caused widespread wind effect in open terrain, forming wind slabs, sastrugi, and scouring windward slopes.

In parts of the region, a buried surface hoar layer may exist roughly 40 cm below the surface.

The mid-snowpack is well consolidated, with a thick melt-freeze crust present at treeline and below, but generally absent in the alpine.

Near the bottom of the snowpack, a crust with facets is considered unlikely to trigger, except with large loads or in thin snowpack areas.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy. 1 mm of rain at treeline. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 3300 m.

Wednesday
Mix of sun and clouds. 60 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 3500 m.

Thursday
Mostly sunny. 50 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Friday
Sunny. 20 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 400 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

In times of uncertainty, conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Keep in mind that the high density of wet avalanches can make them destructive.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.