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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 5th, 2022–Feb 6th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

Rising temperatures will keep the likelihood for humans to trigger avalanches increased, particularly where recent snow loaded a buried weak layer. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy, trace of new snow, moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1200 m. 

SUNDAY: Cloudy with flurries in the morning and sunny in the afternoon, trace of snow, light southwest wind, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level rising to 1900 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, 10 to 15 cm new snow, moderate west wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1500 m.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, up to 5 cm new snow, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1500 m. 

Avalanche Summary

Observations on Friday were limited due to bad visibility. A natural avalanche cycle of small storm slab avalanches up to size 1.5 was reported. Large avalanches are expected in areas where the buried surface hoar described in the Snowpack Summary exists. 

Looking towards Sunday, avoidance of consequential avalanche terrain is your best bet for having a safe day. Storm and wind slabs will be very touchy due to all the recent snow and wind. The snow will need time to stabilize.

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm brought around 30 to 50 cm of snow. The snow has likely formed storm slabs in sheltered areas and wind slabs in lee terrain features from strong southwest wind. These slabs will remain touchy for the remainder of the weekend as the freezing level rises and the air gets warmer.

The snow will be particularly touchy where it is loading a weak layer of surface hoar crystals. This layer is likely anywhere from 50 to 100 cm deep. Reports suggest that the surface hoar is most prominent in sheltered openings at and below treeline but could extend into wind-sheltered terrain in the alpine. Example terrain features to treat as suspect include the lee side of protected ridges, openings in the trees, cut blocks, and burns. On south aspects, a melt-freeze crust may exist instead of surface hoar.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.