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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 25th, 2022–Jan 26th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Be careful around steep open slopes where it's possible to trigger an avalanche on a buried weak layer. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing skies, light wind from the northwest, treeline temperatures drop to -8 C.

WEDNESDAY: Clear skies except for a possibility of valley cloud, light wind from the west, a weak inversion forms with freezing level reaching 2000 m.

THURSDAY: Clear skies except for a possibility of valley cloud, moderate wind from the southwest, freezing level around 1500 m.

FRIDAY: Storm arrives with cloudy skies and 5-15 cm of snow, strong wind from the south, freezing level around 500 m with treeline temperatures around -3 C.

Avalanche Summary

Over the weekend, there were a few human-triggered slab avalanches in the southern part of the region around Terrace. A few of these include size 1-1.5 persistent slab avalanches that occurred on a 30-50 cm deep surface hoar layer at treeline elevations. The photos of the avalanche in this MIN report at Clague are good examples of the type of terrain this problem was found. We are uncertain whether the persistent slab above the surface hoar layer will remain reactive after the recent melt-freeze cycle.

Warm sunny weather on Monday resulted in some small loose wet avalanches, and we expect to see similar activity on Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

The snow surface is undergoing a spring-like melt-refreeze pattern. Warm sunny weather on Wednesday will likely melt the surface in most places except high north-facing terrain. The snowpack is likely capped by a hard crust in most areas, which has helped create a strong settled snowpack. The exception is a 30-50 cm deep surface hoar layer that could still be reactive. This layer has been reported at treeline elevations in the Terrace area.

Terrain and Travel

  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.