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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 28th, 2022–Jan 29th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

It may still be possible to trigger large avalanches on deeply buried weak layers. Be thoughtful with your terrain selection, especially around steep, rocky features.

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear skies with no precipitation, 40 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -8 C.

SATURDAY: Clear skies with no precipitation, 40 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -7 C.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds with afternoon snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -6 C.

MONDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 40 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -8 C.

Avalanche Summary

A few small wind slab avalanches were reported over the past few days, being triggered naturally or by explosives.

The last report of deep persistent slab avalanches are from Jan 21, when some very large avalanches were triggered by cornice falls and wind slab avalanches. Although deep persistent slab activity has recently tapered, it could still be possible to trigger large avalanches in steep, rocky terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Most areas are heavily wind affected. In the most sheltered areas, you may find surface hoar crystals on the surface. A melt-freeze crust may be found on steep sun-exposed slopes. 

The primary layer of concern in the snowpack is a crust that formed in early December and is now 100 to 150 cm deep. This layer is found most areas through the region, but with varying test results. Recently, the layer has shown more reactivity in shallow snowpack areas.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.
  • Carefully evaluate bigger terrain features on an individual basis before committing to them.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.