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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 20th, 2022–Jan 21st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Rockies.

Warm temperatures may create tricky conditions this weekend. Although the region is not included in the avalanche warning, deeper layers in the snowpack may become active. It's a good time to approach the mountains cautiously, with your eyes open, maybe even expect surprises.  

Confidence

Moderate - Recent weather patterns have resulted in a high degree of snowpack variability within the region. Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Thursday's storm is hitting favoured snowholes on the west hard (40 cm at Pine Pass Thursday morning and snowing heavily) while most places are showing 5 to 15cm so far.

THURSDAY Night: Snow tapers off by sunset, strong wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures between -5 and 0 C with freezing level falling from 1000 - 1500m down to valley bottom.

FRIDAY: The warming starts! Cloudy with isolated flurries bringing trace to 5cm of snow, strong wind from the west, treeline temperatures warm to around 0 C with freezing level quickly climbing to 1500 m in the afternoon.

SATURDAY: Warm weather continues with minimal overnight cooling at treeline elevations. Mix of sun and clouds, strong wind from the west, freezing level climbs to near 2000 m in the afternoon.

SUNDAY: Again little overnight cooling at higher elevations. Strong wind from the west, more cloud than sun, freezing level between 1500 and 2000m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations at the time of writing (Thursday afternoon) but I expect a storm slab avalanches are releasing where more than 30 cm of snow has fallen and wind slabs are reactive at treeline and alpine elevations where the wind is stronger than 25 km / hr.

This weekend unstable conditions may continue as warm temperatures weaken the snowpack and test upper and mid snowpack layers.

Snowpack Summary

In the western parts of the region there's 20-40 cm, or possibly even more, new snow while the eastern slopes look like they're only getting 10 cm. If there's more than 25 cm of snow expect widespread storm slab problems. In all areas strong winds suggest widespread reactive wind slabs.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and bonded, with one or multiple crusts near the ground. We suspect the lower snowpack could be weak in shallow rocky wind-affected slopes east of the divide.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 25cm of new snow.
  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
  • In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.