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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 1st, 2022–Jan 4th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

The presence of breakable windslabs makes ski quality variable. Look for sheltered terrain to preserve your knees.

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Light SW winds gusting to moderate. Alpine high -10.

Monday: Periods of snow, 15 cm accumulation. Light SW winds gusting to strong. Alpine high -8 Low -13.

Tuesday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. 4 cm accumulation. Light W ridge winds gusting to strong. Alpine High -12 Low -14.

Snowpack Summary

Extreme W winds are redistributing any remaining sheltered snow at all elevations. Strong SW winds formed 10-40 cm firm wind slab on top of 50-60 cm of christmas storm snow. Beneath this lies a series of right side up wind slabs. Facets are found above Dec 4 crust down 80-120 cm. A 20-60 cm thick Nov crust complex completes the snowpack to ground.

Avalanche Summary

Few slab avalanches up to size 2 observed on N and E aspects on Jan 1, triggered by extreme westerly winds. Several loose dry sluffs out of steep terrain up to sz 1 have been observed around the park. Thanks to everyone posting on the Mountain Information Network, keep up the great work.

Confidence

Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.