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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2023–Jan 6th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Blue River, Premier, Grohman, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Kokanee, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

Buried weak layers continue to produce large, unnerving avalanches. Disciplined terrain travel is warranted. Read about how this year's snowpack is different in our Forecasters' blog.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous large to very large (size 2 to 3) avalanches have been naturally and human triggered over the last week, failing on the weak layers described in the Snowpack Summary, 70 to 200 cm deep. Activity was mostly reported between 1800 m and 2500 m elevation and on all aspects. Check out this recent MIN.

These avalanches continue to indicate that these buried weak layers remain reactive, and are capable of producing large consequential avalanches. Many of these human-triggered avalanches were a surprise to the individuals triggering them.

Small wind slabs have also been triggered by riders, which have the potential of stepping down to the deeper weak layers.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

30 to 50 cm of soft snow is on the snow surface in areas sheltered from the wind. Wind slabs are forming in lee terrain features from strong southerly wind in wind-exposed terrain. New wind slabs may sit over a layer of surface hoar and/or crust.

The upper snowpack is generally settled and well-bonded, however buried weak layers continue to be a concern, with large and surprising (remote or accidental triggered) avalanche activity reported throughout the last week.

A weak layer of crust, facets and/or surface hoar buried just before Christmas is buried 40 to 70 cm deep. The lower snowpack is generally weak and facetted with a weak layer of large facets from mid-November found near the bottom.

Snowpack depths are roughly 150 to 200 cm at treeline. This year's snowpack is weaker than usual, as described in our Forecasters' blog.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Alpine high of -5 °C.

Friday

Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 1 to 3 cm. Moderate southwest wind. Freezing level around 900 m. Alpine high of -6 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm. Moderate southerly wind. Alpine high of -6 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm. Moderate southerly wind. Alpine high of -6 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.