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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2023–Jan 18th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal, Northwest Inland, Nass, Seven Sisters, Shames, Stewart, Howson, Kispiox, Ningunsaw, Ningunsaw.

Choose mellow, low-consequence slopes and give the snowpack time to adjust to the new load. Uncertainty about deeper weak layers demands vigilance and careful terrain selection.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, several large (size 2-3) persistent slab avalanches occurred with explosive control in the south of the region. These avalanches failed on a weak facet layer formed in late December.

Several skier-triggered (size 1-2) persistent slab avalanches have been reported around Terrace and Smithers over the past few days. These avalanches are failing on a weak layer of surface hoar in the upper meter of the snowpack. One of these slabs stepped down to a layer of weak, sugary, facetted crystals that were buried on December 23rd.

Snowpack Summary

Fresh snow will be falling mostly on 20-50 cm of settled snow. In sheltered areas, a layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals buried in early January will now be 40-70 cm below the surface. Expect a shallower, weaker snowpack in wind-exposed terrain.

Several persistent weak layers may be found in the top meter of the snowpack. These include a surface hoar layer buried on Jan 9th, now 20 to 40 cm deep, Dec 28 found 40 to 80 cm deep and a facet layer buried on Dec 23 found 60 to 100 cm deep. In alpine terrain, triggering one of these layers is most likely on steep rocky slopes where they present as facets. In treeline terrain, the layers are most likely triggered on steep slopes in open trees where they present as preserved surface hoar.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

Cloudy with snowfall, 5 to 20 cm of accumulation. Alpine temperatures drop to a low of -6 °C. Ridge wind southeast 40-50 km/h. Freezing level 500 metres.

Wednesday

Cloudy with flurries in the morning and sunny breaks in the afternoon. Accumulation 2 to 10 cm. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -6 °C. Ridge wind west 30 km/h gusting to 55 km/h. Freezing level 700 metres.

Thursday

Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries. 5 to 10 cm accumulation. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -4 °C. Ridge wind southwest 35 km/h gusting to 60 km/h. Freezing level rises to 1300 metres.

Friday

Cloudy with scattered flurries, 5 to 15 cm accumulation Alpine temperatures reach a high of -2 °C. Ridge wind southwest 45 km/h gusting to 75 km/h. Freezing level rises to 1100 metres.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Use conservative route selection and resist venturing out into complex terrain.
  • Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.