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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 11th, 2026–Mar 12th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, Dogtooth, East Purcell, St. Mary, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Storm slabs will be most reactive in wind affected terrain.

Persistent slabs remain possible to human trigger at treeline and above.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident that there are persistent slabs in the snowpack, but uncertain about how likely they are to trigger.
  • We are uncertain about forecast snowfall amounts.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, several natural cornice failures up to size 2.5 and several naturally triggered wind slabs up to size 1.5 were reported on primarily north/east aspects in the alpine.

Snowpack Summary

Forecast 15 to 25 cm of snow and strong southwest wind on Wednesday night will form storm slabs that will be most reactive in wind affected terrain.

Under the recent snow is a crust on all aspects, which extends to around 1500 m near Golden, rising to 2100 m further south. Where this crust is absent or unsupportive, concern remains for a persistent weak layer of surface hoar or crust buried 50 to 70 cm deep, and up to 100 cm down in deeper snowpacks such as the Dogtooth Range.

In shallow snowpack areas, depth hoar (large facets) can be found near the bottom of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night
Cloudy. 15 to 25 cm of snow. 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -7 °C.

Thursday
Mostly cloudy. 0 to 5 cm of snow. 60 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Friday
Mostly cloudy. 0 to 5 cm of snow. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

Saturday
Mix of sun and clouds. 0 to 5 cm of snow. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Use small, low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, or recent avalanches.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind-exposed terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.