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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2020–Mar 15th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Updated 08:00 am on Friday:

An unexpected but welcome 15-20cm of new snow has fallen in the park since yesterday, adding to our windslab problem. Blizzard like conditions are expected for the weekend, elevating the hazard rapidly.

Weather Forecast

Clear skies on Thursday morning making way to building clouds and afternoon flurries. The weekend is setting up for an intense upslope spring storm with blizzard like conditions.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20cm of new snow from convective flurries yesterday overlies wind affected surfaces including windslab and crusts from the extreme wind event earlier in the week. The midpack is strong, though weaker basal facets still lurk in thin areas.

Cornices are large and looming.

Avalanche Summary

Surrounding areas have reported Natural and explosive triggered storm slab avalanches to size 2 in alpine features on Wednesday.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.