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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 28th, 2021–Nov 29th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

If you find a crust forming on the surface today, avalanches will be unlikely. However without significant cooling, the upper snowpack will likely remain wet and punchy with the potential for human triggered loose wet avalanches.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

As the snowfall tapers Sunday night, we'll see a brief break Monday before yet another storm arrives Tuesday.

Sunday night: Flurries, 5-10mm tapering by morning. Wind easing to moderate and shifting west. Freezing level 1800 m.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Light westerly wind. Alpine temperature around -2 C. Freezing level 1700m.

Tuesday: Around 10 cm new snow. Strong southwest wind. Freezing level 1600 m. 

Wednesday: Around 10 cm new snow turning to rain. Strong southwest wind. Freezing level rising to 2500 m.

Avalanche Summary

We have not received any observations from the weekend's storm.

On Friday, minor avalanche cycle size 1-2 was observed on north facing alpine start zones. A size 1.5 skier accidental storm slab was reported on the Mountain Information Network near Nelson. They noted a fast moving avalanche with wide propagation, supported by a hard bed surface.

Note that there are very few field observations in the Kootenay Boundary this early in the season. Backcountry users need skills in assessing conditions and decision making. If you go out in the mountains, please share your observations and/or photos on the Mountain Information Network!

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack consists of moist, dense snow, settling quickly in the warm temperatures. In the Okanagan a 2mm rain crust may exist at the interface between recent storms.

The mid-November crust is down 25-50 cm and is up to 10 cm thick. The lower snowpack is a series of crust and facet layers. At the bottom of the snowpack, up to 20 cm of faceted snow may be found. 

Snowpack depths at treeline range from 40-100 cm, with alpine depths exceeding 150 cm in areas. Below 1700m, snowpack depths decrease rapidly.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.