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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 24th, 2021–Nov 25th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia.

Avalanche hazard will rise with an incoming winter storm on Thursday. I'm expecting most areas to see around 25 cm of new snow by the end of Thursday. If storm amounts build up to 35 cm or more, consider the alpine and treeline avalanche danger to be high.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: Around 10 cm new snow. Strong Southwesterly ridgetop winds.

Thursday: 15-20 cm new snow. Freezing levels rising to approximately 1400 m in the afternoon. Moderate 

southwesterly winds at treeline elevations, strong or extreme southwesterly winds at ridgetop.

Friday: Around 10 cm new snow. Freezing level around 1400 m. Strong southwesterly ridgetop winds.

Saturday: Some clear spells in the morning. Around 5 cm new snow in the afternoon. Freezing levels at valley bottom. Moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds.

Avalanche Summary

Recent size 1.5-2 wind slab avalanches have been reported from exposed locations at higher elevations (above approximately 2000 m) on various aspects.

Expect avalanche activity to increase as the storm builds through the day on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

20-50 cm of recent snow sits above a rain crust from mid-November. This rain crust exists at elevations to at least 1800 m and potentially up to 2100 m. The wind has moved the recent snow into wind deposits in exposed alpine areas.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 20 cm of new snow.
  • Avoid lee and cross loaded slopes in the alpine.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.