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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2023–Mar 2nd, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells, South Rockies, Dogtooth, East Purcell, St. Mary, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

***UPDATED***

Steer clear of freshly wind loaded features. Wind slabs are expected to remain reactive to human triggers.

Avoid thin and rocky start zones, especially in the alpine and upper treeline where deeply buried weak layers remain concerning.

There are preliminary reports of a serious avalanche incident near Invermere today. We do not currently have anymore information on this.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

There are preliminary reports of a serious avalanche incident near Invermere today. We do not currently have anymore information on this.

On Tuesday two skiers were caught in a size 2 avalanche on a sparsely treed northeast aspect at 2200 m. The crown was over 1 meter in places and showed concerning propagation. wind loading was a factor. Check out this MIN for more details.

Deep persistent slab avalanches continue to occur almost daily in this region. The most recent notable was a size 3 triggered by a natural cornice fall on a east aspect.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30 cm of low density recent storm snow sits over wind affected surfaces. Expect deeper deposits on north and east facing slopes, from southwest winds.

Buried surface hoar sits 30-50 cm deep in sheltered terrain features, and a thin sun crust exists at the same depth on steep south-facing terrain.

The lower snowpack contains a number of buried weak layers such as surface hoar with variable distribution, as well as a widespread layer of large, weak basal facets and depth hoar in some areas. These weaknesses have been responsible for a number of recent very large, destructive avalanches and will continue to be a concern.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy with a few centimeters of new snow expected. Moderate to strong southwest winds and a low of -12 °C at 2000 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with up to 5 cm of new snow expected. Moderate westerly winds and a High of -4°C at 2000 m.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with trace amounts of new snow expected. Light southwest winds and a high of -8°C at 2000 m.

Saturday

A mix of sun and cloud with no new snow expected. Light southerly winds and a high of -8°C at 2000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.