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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2023–Mar 13th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Continually assess snowfall amounts and watch for blowing snow. Storm and wind slabs will likely increase in reactivity throughout the day. The greatest hazard will be in areas that recieve 20 cm or more of fresh snow.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations in the past few days. Avalanche activity is expected to increase with increasing snowfall.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow continues to accumulate over a variety of surfaces including old wind effected snow and a sun crust on solar aspects. Wind slabs will be found on northerly aspects.

A thick, widespread crust formed in mid February now sits 50-90 cm deep. Near Mt Cain, the crust is smooth with faceted crystals sitting on top of it. Avalanche activity on this layer has now tapered off, and reports show this interface is strengthening and unlikely to be triggered by a riders weight. Riders should still avoid thin and rocky start zones where this layer will sit closer to the surface.

The mid and lower snowpack is well consolidated, containing a series of well-bonded crusts.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of new snow expected. Moderate southerly winds and a low of -2°C at 1400 m.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of new snow expected. Light to moderate southerly winds and a high of -3°C at 1400 m.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud with up to 10 cm of new snow possible. Light to moderate southerly winds and a high of -4°C at 1400 m.

Wednesday

Sunny with no new snow expected. Light westerly winds and a high of -4°C at 1400 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 20 cm of new snow.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • As the storm slab problem gets trickier, the easy solution is to choose more conservative terrain.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.