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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 10th, 2019–Mar 11th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Snoqualmie Pass.

Expect increasing clouds, warming temperatures, and wind at upper elevations. You can trigger loose avalanches on steep slopes (both sunny and shaded) where you find soft, weak snow on the surface. Don't linger on steep sunny slopes as temperatures warm and use caution near cliffs and gullies, where small avalanches could be dangerous. 

Discussion

Snow and Avalanche Discussion:

On Friday through Sunday, observers reported loose avalanches on both shaded and sun-exposed slopes in the Alpental Valley, the Commonwealth, and Middle Fork of the Snoqualmie drainages. On Thursday and Friday, observers reported triggered and natural shallow and soft slabs on leeward, wind-loaded (north through east) slopes near and above treeline. On Thursday observers easily triggered small slabs on southerly slopes where the recent snow rested on a crust. 

Up to 8 inches of snow accumulated between Wednesday and Friday morning with drifted snow forming soft slabs up to up to 1-foot deep. The recent snow buried a variety of old surfaces including crusts, firm wind-packed snow, facets, and surface hoar. Keep this interface on your mind, and use quick tests to evaluate it as you move through the mountains.

A natural slab avalanche (D1) on a northeast aspect of Chair Peak at 5,200ft. 3/10/2019. Photo: Dallas Glass.

Snowpack Discussion

March 10, 2019

February started stormy and cold with very active avalanche conditions on persistent weak layers. The month finished with continued cold temperatures but drier weather allowed avalanche activity to taper off. Persistent weak layers that were buried early in the month (Feb 8th) are now unreactive, though you can still find the grains.

Aside from the series of storms in early to mid-February, most regions have measured relatively light snow accumulation in the past 3 weeks. Snow has stayed soft especially on shaded slopes and faceting and surface hoar have been plentiful. While there has been plenty of sunshine since mid-February, very cold temperatures have kept melt-freeze crust to a minimum on sunny slopes.

A natural loose wet avalanche (D1.5) on a southeast aspect of Lichtenberg Mtn at 5,400ft. 3/10/2019. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Recent Avalanches

Our attention shifted to the upper snowpack. Recent avalanche problems have largely focussed on wind transported snow and weak snow surfaces on both dry, shaded slopes and sun-exposed aspects. In some locations, a weak layer of surface hoar and facets was buried on March 6th. We’ll keep an eye on this interface as we move into the future.

A skier-triggered storm slab avalanche (D1.5) on Shuksan Arm, north aspect, 5200ft. 03/09/19 Adam U Photo. 

Moving Forward

As we move further into March, there are two points to consider:

  • The strength of the March sun: As the sun creeps higher into the sky and the days grow longer, the sun can have a greater impact on the snow surface. When the sun comes out, expect things to change quickly. You may see avalanches conditions change with natural loose avalanches originating from sunny slopes, surface snow becoming thick and heavy, and slabs taking on a moist to wet snow character.

  • Weak surfaces: facets and surface hoar have blanketed snow surfaces in many zones. Any significant snowfall will bury well-developed and widespread persistent weak layers. Recently, most storms have not delivered enough precipitation to cause a problem.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.