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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2019–Feb 2nd, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

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Avalanche hazard increases significantly as you gain elevation. Fresh storm slabs will be easy to trigger at upper elevations on Saturday. Choose conservative terrain while the snowpack adjusts to the heavy load of new snow.

Discussion

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

A wet, potent storm is favoring the Northwest Cascades. The adjacent West-North forecast zone received over 2in of water since Thursday night with 4000-5000ft snow levels. So far, near treeline areas have picked up 12in of heavy new snow. Mostly rain has fallen below 4000ft. Snow totals at upper elevations are unconfirmed. Another .5-.75in of water is expected Friday night with snow levels dropping to 3500ft as precipitation tapers off and conditions dry out by Saturday afternoon.

Observers on Friday experienced wet and windy conditions with very low visibility in the nearby Mt. Baker area. Snowfall remained steady for most of the day. A noticeable increase in the height of new snow occurred near 4500ft. Small natural and triggered loose wet avalanches occurred on steep convex slopes. The old/new interface was saturated/wet up to at least 5000ft, and new snow appeared to be bonding well up to this elevation. However, a density break within the storm snow produced easy failures in snowpack tests.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.