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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 6th, 2017–Feb 7th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Olympics.

New snow instabilities within the deep recent snowfall will continue to settle out, but continue to make conservative terrain choices by choosing lower angled terrain and avoiding wind loaded slopes. Recently formed wind slabs may be found on a variety of aspects Tuesday. 

Detailed Forecast

Showers should end Tuesday morning. Cold temperatures and light winds are expected Tuesday. This should allow for slow settlement and stabilization of recent wind and storm slabs formed during the storm cycle since Friday.

Storm slabs may still be sensitive on Tuesday, but likely confined to the most recent storm snow over the past day. While deeper storm slab instabilities should be stabilizing, it may still be possible to trigger a large storm slab avalanche in isolated areas. 

Be aware that small loose dry avalanches triggered on steep slopes can entrain deeper snow layers.   

Instabilities within the deep new snow may need more time to settle out so make conservative terrain choices by choosing lower angled terrain and avoiding any wind loaded slopes, mainly near and above treeline. 

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

A strong storm cycle began Friday, continuing into Monday afternoon. As of Monday afternoon the three day storm totals have been about 2-3 inches of water equivalent with about 2.5 feet of snow accumulating in the Hurricane Ridge area. A cooling trend began Friday afternoon with a gradual decrease in overall snowfall intensities from Sunday morning. Winds through the storm cycle have been mostly light to moderate at times.

Melt-freeze crusts formed a week ago during high freezing levels and light rain. 

Recent Observations

NWAC pro-observer, Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane on Friday (before most of storm snow arrived) and found scoured slopes or shallow new snow on E slopes and shallow building wind slab on SW slopes. He found no significant signs of instability, ski tracks still visible from last week and lots of surface roughness to fill in on lee slopes.

No observations were received Saturday through Monday. 

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.