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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 23rd, 2020–Feb 24th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

The developing storm slabs are expected to be reactive to human triggers on Monday. Careful terrain selection and route finding will be required to effectively manage risk.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast incoming weather.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: 2-5 cm snow, light west wind, alpine temperature -9 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with possible flurries; 0-5 cm, light southwest wind, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 400 m

TUESDAY: Cloudy with flurries; 3-5 cm, moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 600 m.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level rising to 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday the new snow was reported as being reactive to skier traffic as a very thin soft slab, especially in wind affected terrain. These slabs will become increasingly touchy as the new snow stacks up and settles into a cohesive slab.

Snowpack Summary

15-30 cm of recent snow has buried a widespread layer of surface hoar (size 5-15 mm.). This layer exists on all aspects and elevations except for steep solar aspects where it was melted by sun and formed a crust. Surface hoar sitting on a thin sun crust may exist on lower angle solar aspects which is a particularly nasty combination. The new snow will likely become increasingly reactive to human triggers as it stacks up and settles into a cohesive slab. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Shooting cracks, whumphs and recent avalanches are strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.
  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.