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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 26th, 2024–Dec 27th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Tune into the reactivity of wind redistributed and/or sun-exposed snow and pull back to low-consequence terrain if you encounter signs of instability.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A size 2 storm slab was triggered accidentally by a skier walking along a ridgeline in the Mount Washington area on Wednesday. It occurred on a northwest-facing 30-degree slope at treeline, fractured 100 m wide, ran 50 m, and featured a 40 cm crown. Numerous size 1 - 1.5 slabs were observed throughout north-facing terrain in the same area. An island-wide large natural avalanche cycle likely proceeded through the overnight period.

Snowpack Summary

The Christmas storm brought 40 - 60 cm of new snow to the Island's remote weather stations. Accumulations in the west coast alpine are likely significantly higher. Wind-affected areas have a wide-ranging 0 - 200 cm sitting on the pre-storm crust!

Fluctuating freezing levels formed at least two mid-storm failure planes in the new snow, both of which continued to produce moderate, sudden snowpack test results on Thursday. These weaknesses are expected to stabilize relatively quickly.

Below the new snow, the snowpack is thoroughly settled and bonded.

Snowpack depths at treeline are now about 130 -180 cm on the north and south island, closer to 250 to 300 cm on the central island.

Weather Summary

Thursday night

Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind shifting southeast and easing. Freezing level 1100 m.

Friday

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, increasing overnight. 10 to 40 km/h southeast ridgetop wind, increasing. Freezing level 1200 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with continuing wet flurries bringing 15 to 30 cm of new snow, including overnight amounts. 50 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1400 m.

Sunday

Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow. 30 to 40 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.