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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2015–Feb 16th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia.

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Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be dry and cool, with sunny periods. Winds are generally light from the NW. The freezing level is at valley floor by night and rising to around 1200 m by day. The next storm system may arrive on Wednesday with warming temperatures and light precipitation, but weather models are not in agreement about this.

Avalanche Summary

Several size 1.5-3 avalanches were triggered naturally over the last few days in response to storm loading, wind and warm temperatures. A number of cornice collapses and an ice fall have also been reported. Skiers triggered a very large (size 3.5) persistent slab on Thursday on a NE aspect in the alpine in the Monashees. It failed on the late-Jan layer. Now that temperatures have cooled, avalanche activity is likely to ease, although direct sun may spark a new avalanche cycle on steep slopes or cause more cornices to fall.

Snowpack Summary

Now that the weather has finally cooled after ten days of very warm temperatures and bursts of rain, surface crusts have formed to at least 2000 m. Underneath newly formed crusts, you may find moist snow for a few days yet. At alpine elevations, new wind slabs or storm slabs may be found. Cornices are large and weak. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer, buried up to a metre deep, continues to give sudden results in snowpack tests in some locations. The mid-January surface hoar is typically down 80-120cm. Chances of triggering this have decreased, but it could possibly be triggered from thin or rocky snowpack areas; or perhaps with a cornice fall, or an avalanche stepping down.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.