Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 14th, 2022–Dec 15th, 2022

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

The wind has switched direction to the north east. Because of this irregular wind direction watch for possible wind slabs on slopes where they are not typically found.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

In the past couple of days in the Parker Ridge/Mt. Saskatchewan area there have been a couple of natural avalanches to size 2 that are stepping down to ground in the alpine. Similar results with explosive at Marmot Basin have been occurring.

Snowpack Summary

Variable conditions in the alpine from hard wind pressed surfaces to weak faceted snow. A persistent weak layer is down 25-30cm specific to tree line and below in sheltered areas. The snowpack ranges from 40-100cm. Snowpack is unsupportive tree line and below.

Weather Summary

Thursday

A mix of sun and cloud.

Precipitation: Nil.

Alpine temperature: High -7 °C.

Ridge wind northwest: 10-20 km/h.

Freezing level at valley bottom.

Friday

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries.

Precipitation: Trace.

Alpine temperature: Low -11 °C, High -9 °C.

Ridge wind west: 10-20 km/h.

Freezing level at valley bottom.

Saturday

A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries.

Precipitation: Trace.

Alpine temperature: Low -29 °C, High -12 °C.

Ridge wind northeast: 10 km/h.

Freezing level at valley bottom.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.