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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 16th, 2022–Dec 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Blue River, Premier, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Whatshan.

Keep backcountry travel low-risk and close to the car. First, there's a tricky weak layer problem. And second, with incoming really cold temperatures and some of the shortest daylight hours of the year, any sort of incident (even broken equipment) could quickly become an epic.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity is slowly decreasing since early this week, however spooky, remote-triggered avalanches continue to be reported. On Thursday, skiers remotely triggered a large size 2 avalanche in the Monashees north of Hwy1. This avalanche occurred around 1900 m on an east aspect and was triggered from about 40 m away by skiers on a low-angle bench.

On Wednesday, skiers triggered several size 1-2 slab avalanches in the Selkirks, including a couple of size 1.5 avalanches remotely triggered in treeline openings around 1900-2000 m.

On Tuesday in the northern Monashees, a vehicle remote-triggered a size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche on the mid-November layer. Explosives control produced several size 3 and a size 3.5 persistent slab avalanches.

MIN reports from Monday outside the RMR area boundary document 2 large avalanches triggered by skiers, reported crown depths were 80 cm (Montana1, Montana2).

Sunday

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths are highly variable and range from 90 cm at treeline to 200 cm in the alpine in wind-affected locations.

Surface: 5-8 mm surface hoar has formed in sheltered areas on the surface of the snowpack. A sun crust is found on steep solar slopes above 2000 m. Northerly winds are creating wind slabs in lees and cross-loading features at higher elevations.

Upper-pack: 40-50 cm settling snow overlies a weak layer of 5 mm surface hoar in sheltered and shaded terrain and a sun crust on sunny south-facing slopes.

Mid-pack: Buried 60-90 cm deep, is a persistent weak layer of surface hoar, crust, and faceted crystals. This layer has been most reactive at treeline between 1700-2200 m, but it was also observed as low as 1450 m and on all aspects.

Lower-pack: Below the mid-November layer is a generally weak, faceted snowpack.

Weather Summary

Friday night

Cloudy with isolated flurries, trace to 5 cm by morning. Light westerly ridge winds up to 20 km/h. Overnight alpine low temperature -16 C.

Saturday

Cloudy skies and isolated flurries, another trace to 5 cm. Light west ridge winds up to 20 km/h.  Alpine high temperature -10 C and dropping quickly.

Sunday

Cold and grey, possible isolated flurries. Light northeast ridge winds up to 20 km/h.  Alpine high temperature -20 C.

Monday

Very cold, but less windy. Calm to light winds, daytime high temperatures -22 C.

Monday

 

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be aware of the potential for large, destructive avalanches due to the presence of deeply buried weak layers.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.