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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2022–Jan 1st, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Shuswap, North Okanagan.

With a problematic persistent layer, it's critical to stay disciplined and choose only well-supported, low-consequence lines.

A moderate danger rating means that large human-triggered avalanches are possible in isolated areas.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Few natural occurrences were reported since Wednesday. Earlier this week, a large rider-triggered avalanche (size 2) was reported near Sun Peaks. The avalanche released from a persistent weak layer on a thin-thick steep roll.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Between 15-20 cm of light snow is now overlying the recent dense storm snow. New snow has been redistributed to northerly aspects at higher elevations. Fresh soft slabs may not bond well to previous surfaces such as hard wind-pressed snow.

The mid-December widespread weak layer of sugary faceted grains and/or small surface hoar is found down 40-50 cm. This layer was responsible for numerous large natural and human-triggered avalanches since Dec 27 in the neighboring region of Columbia. At lower elevations, a significant rain crust can be found down 40-50 cm. The November weak layer lies 90 to 140 cm below the surface. There is still a potential for smaller avalanches to step down to this deeper layer.

The majority of the snowpack is faceted, with roughly 140 cm found at treeline and less below treeline.

Weather Summary

Periods of snow will persist overnight as the coastal system weakens. An upper ridge will be bringing widespread subsidence late Sunday and fair weather for the weekdays.

Saturday night

Light snow 2-5 cm, northwesterly ridge winds up to 30 km/h, treeline temperatures -3° C. Freezing level around 750 m.

Sunday

Mainly cloudy, isolated flurries, northwesterly ridge winds up to 20 km/h, treeline temperatures -3° C. Freezing level around 750 m.

Monday

Mainly sunny, no precipitation, southwesterly ridge winds at 20 km/, treeline temperatures around -8 °C. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Tuesday

Mainly sunny, no precipitation, southwesterly ridge winds at 20 km/, treeline temperatures around -10 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Avoid rock outcroppings, convexities, and anywhere the snowpack is thin and/or variable.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.