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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2023–Dec 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Small avalanches are unlikely on this wet weekend!

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches have been reported recently.

If you are out in the backcountry please consider filling out a MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

Southerly winds will likely redistribute 2 - 10 cm of new snow at upper elevations today. At lower elevations this precipitation fell as rain.

Warming and some wet precipitation yesterday probably helped consolidate the 15 to 20 cm of previously wind-distributed snow. This overlies a hard melt-freeze crust. Another crust with surface hoar above it can be found down 30 to 40 cm. We are not concerned about these layers at this time.

The snowpack is generally still very shallow with many early-season hazards and large areas of terrain below avalanche threshold. Only specific terrain features with smooth ground cover, gullies, or established avalanche paths are above the threshold for avalanches.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Cloudy with 0 to 10 mm, southwest ridge top winds 30 to 50 km/h, treeline temperature 1°C, freezing level hovering between 2000 - 2500 m.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with trace amounts of precipitation possible, southerly ridge top winds 10 to 30 km/h, treeline temperature 2°C, freezing level around 2000 m.

Sunday

Partly cloudy with no precipitation expected, south ridgetop wind 5 to 15 km/h, freezing level rising to 3000 m.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with 5 mm expected, southwest ridge top wind 20 - 40km/h, freezing levels expected to drop to 2500 m. 

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.