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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 3rd, 2023–Dec 4th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Avalanche danger will increase Monday as rain soaks the snowpack. Minimize your exposure to avalanche terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

We are expecting a natural loose wet avalanche cycle up to size 2 as the rain intensifies on Monday.

So far this season no avalanches have been reported, but this MIN from Mount Becher describes signs of instability in the recent snow on Saturday. If you're heading out in the backcountry, please consider sharing any observations on the Mountain Information Network 🙏

Snowpack Summary

30-60 cm of recent snow is getting soaked with rain at elevations below 2400 m. Depending on elevation, this snow sits over a shallow cover of crusts and old snow, or directly on the ground. The snowline is likely creeping up as rain washes it away at lower elevations.

Weather Summary

A warm, wet storm arrives on Monday, bringing heavy rain and positive temperatures up to 3000 m. Things start to cool off again on Tuesday.

Sunday night

Cloudy. A trace of new snow. Moderate southwest wind. Freezing level 1300 m.

Monday

Rain (20-40mm). Strong southerly ridgetop wind. Freezing level spiking to 3000 m.

Tuesday

Mixed precip overnight (10-30 mm), easing and turning to snow in the morning (5-10 mm). Strong southerly ridgetop wind easing to moderate southwest. Freezing level dropping from 3000 m to 1600 m.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud. Calm. Freezing level 1200 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from rain.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.