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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 20th, 2026–Mar 21st, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, East Purcell, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Uncertainty remains on how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Conditions will vary with elevation, from wet snow to surface crust.

Make observations as you travel.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain about how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.
  • We are uncertain due to variable freezing levels.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, evidence of numerous and very large avalanches (up to size 3) was reported in the East Purcells on all aspects and elevations, indicating a widespread natural cycle. These included wet loose, wet slabs and persistent slabs. Many features have run full path (up to size 4) and reached the valley bottom.

If you are heading into the backcountry, please consider sharing conditions via the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

High freezing levels and rain are continuing to soak the upper snowpack up to 2400 m of elevation.

As freezing levels drop, a widespread crust will start to form on all aspects and higher elevations.

Below this, 30 to 50 cm of wet snow sits above a crust (1 to 10 cm thick).

The widespread avalanche cycle has likely flushed most of the persistent slabs in the top 120 cm of the snowpack, but some may still linger in areas where avalanche paths have not yet released.

In shallow snowpack areas, depth hoar (large facets) can be found near the bottom of the snowpack.

The lower snowpack is soaked at lower elevations.

Weather Summary

Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Up to 2cm of snow in high alpine. 60 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0°C. Freezing level 2000 m.

Saturday
Mostly sunny. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1800 m.

Sunday
Mostly sunny. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1600 m.

Monday
Mostly sunny. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0°C. Freezing level 2000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Cornice failures could trigger large and destructive avalanches.
  • Wet avalanche activity may step down to deeply buried persistent weak layers at lower elevations.
  • Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.