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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 22nd, 2020–Jan 23rd, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia.

Fresh storm slabs will likely be reactive to human triggering, especially in wind loaded areas, and at upper elevations. Watch for signs of instability such as whumphing, cracking and recent avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries / southwest wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine low temperature near -7

THURSDAY - Flurries, 10-15 cm / southwest wind, 30-60 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1500 m

FRIDAY - Flurries, 10 cm / southwest wind, 20-30 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1500 m

SATURDAY - Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries / southwest wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near -3 / freezing level 1400 m

Avalanche Summary

There have been several reports over the last three days of natural, human and explosives triggered avalanches on all aspects and at all elevation bands. Most of these were size 1-1.5 storm and wind slab avalanches, with a few larger (2-2.5) cornice and explosives triggered storm slab avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Around 15 to 40 cm of snow has fallen over the past week with another 10-15 forecast for Thursday with strong southwest winds and relatively warm temperatures. There will likely be storm slabs forming throughout the day, especially in the alpine and at treeline.

A layer of surface hoar buried 80 to 150 cm deep could still be a concern in certain parts of the Selkriks and the northern end of the Monashees. It exists primarily at treeline and below treeline, and though it appears to be gaining strength, it could still be triggered by a large load in some areas.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.