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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2020–Jan 11th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Natural activity is tapering off but human triggered avalanches initiating in the basal weakness remains likely in the right spot. Conservative line choice and mitigating overhead exposure is the key for safely venturing out before the deep freeze!

Weather Forecast

The arctic air mass continues to advance from the NE.

Saturday - Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries to 4 cm. Alp High -9 °C. Ridge wind SW10-25 km/h.

Sunday - Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Ppt Trace. Alp Low -33 °C, High -18 °C. Wind SE10-20 km/h.

Visit CAA's Mountain Weather Forecast for more specific details.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 60cm new snow since January 1st. Consistent SW winds creating wind slab on lee aspects in the alpine and treeline. This overlies buried surface hoar up to 2000m in sheltered areas as well as buried wind slabs on lee features at treeline and above. Well consolidated midpack. The bottom of the snowpack consists of depth hoar and facets.

Avalanche Summary

Recent widespread avalanche cycle up to size 3 on all aspects and elevations - wind slab, dry loose and deep persistent slab.  Suspect continued slab development on lee features with natural activity tapering off.  Human triggering of wind slab and deep persistent remains likely.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations on Saturday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.