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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2020–Jan 11th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Continued snowfall and wind are adding to the load on buried layers. Conservative terrain choices are still recommended.

Weather Forecast

10cm of snow due during the day today with strong SW wind and cold temperatures. Flurries tomorrow peaking with an incoming cold front in the afternoon followed by calm, cold conditions as the temperature drops below -20.

Snowpack Summary

1.5m of new snow this week has significantly increased the load over the Dec 27th surface hoar. Within the new snow there are several triggerable interfaces from changes in wind, temp and crystal type. Recent SW winds have redistributed snow to alpine and treeline lees. Deep, loose snow in sheltered locations is sluffing fast in steep areas.

Avalanche Summary

The snowpack is still adjusting to the new load. The natural avalanche cycle has slowed down in most parts of the Rogers Pass region. There were numerous natural and artillery triggered avalanches sz 2.5 to 3.5 in the Park this week and in the surrounding area large natural avalanches have been reported running below treeline.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.