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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 25th, 2020–Jan 26th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Avalanche hazard will increase through the day where heavy snow accumulates.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Wet flurries, 5-10 cm. Alpine low temperature +1 C. Southeast wind 20 gusting to 50 km/hr. Freezing level 1200 m.

SUNDAY: Snow and rain, 25-35 cm. Alpine high temperature +2 C. South wind 35-55 km/hr. Freezing level 1400 m.

MONDAY: Scattered flurries, 5 cm. Alpine high temperature +1 C. South wind 20 gusting to 45 km/hr. Freezing level 1200 m.

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine high temperature +1 C. South wind 15-25 km/hr. Freezing level 1300 m.

Avalanche Summary

A few small (size 1) wet-loose avalanches were observed on Thursday morning as the rain event began.

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm temperatures and rain saturated the snowpack to 1900 m. Where dry snow prevailed (at the highest elevations), winds have scoured and redistributed about 20 cm new snow developing slabs and building cornices. 

Rain earlier in the week created a strong and settled snowpack, which is now 250-300 cm deep around the peaks of the North Shore mountains.

Terrain and Travel

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.