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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 25th, 2020–Jan 26th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Areas where you can trigger an avalanche on Sunday are specific to where the wind has drifted the recent snow at higher elevations. Stay alert and monitor for these conditions if travelling in these areas.

Confidence

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern; little change is expected for several days.

Weather Forecast

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy, light southwest winds, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level dropping to valley bottom.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries, light southwest winds gusting moderate, alpine high temperature -3 C, freezing level around 1500 m.

Monday: Cloudy with periods of sun, isolated flurries, moderate southwest winds, alpine high temperature -2 C, freezing level around 1500 m.

Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud, light southwest winds, alpine high temperature -2 C, freezing level around 1400 m.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. On Monday we received reports of natural and explosive triggered wind slab avalanches size 1.5-2.

On January 16th, a natural size 2 wind slab stepped down to the deep persistent basal facets below a rock band, details here.

Snowpack Summary

Recent strong westerly winds have formed stiff wind slabs in exposed areas on leeward aspects at and above treeline. A crust can be found up to treeline and on solar aspects in the alpine due to recent daytime warming and sun exposure.

A well consolidated mid-snowpack overlies a generally weak basal snowpack. The bottom 10-20 cm of the snowpack consists of facets and deteriorating crusts. Although inherently weak, the benign weather pattern this week will likely promote a decreasing trend in reactivity for this avalanche problem.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.