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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2020–Jan 12th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Natural activity is tapering off but potential for human triggered avalanches remains. There is a lot of uncertainty in the current snowpack. If avalanches don't get you, the freezing cold will!

Weather Forecast

Sunday will be mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, trace snow, -18 C, and light East winds. Monday will be cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries, trace snow, low -33 C and high -26 C with light ridge wind.

Visit CAA's Mountain Weather Forecast for more specific details.

Snowpack Summary

The area received 60cm new snow January 1-7. SW winds created wind slab on lee aspects and cross-loaded features the alpine and treeline. This overlies surface hoar up to 2000m in sheltered areas as well as buried wind slabs on lee features at treeline and above. The bottom of the snowpack consists of depth hoar and facets.

Avalanche Summary

A Saturday road patrol observed a new sz 2.5 wind slab that went to ground at treeline in a wind prone area as well as a sz 3 in the Parker Slabs area.  A widespread avalanche cycle up to size 3 occurred a few days ago on all aspects and elevations on wind slab, dry loose and deep persistent slab.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.