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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 23rd, 2023–Apr 24th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells, Dogtooth, East Purcell, St. Mary.

High daytime freezing levels and mild overnight temperatures will continue to stress an already weak snowpack.

Stick to conservative, low angle, and supported terrain features. Avoid thin and rocky terrain where warming will be most intense.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Observations are limited at this point in the season. If you have any information, let us know what you are seeing through the Mountain Information Network.

Loose wet avalanches were observed this week, naturally triggered by the sun. Explosive control work on Thursday produced size 1 avalanches within the recent storm snow, shallow but up to 100 m wide on the most recent buried crust.

The numerous buried weak layers including the basal facets remain a concern, especially as warm temperatures stress the snowpack this week. Recent avalanche activity on these layers in adjacent forecast areas highlights the need to avoid rocky and thin snowpack areas for the remainder of the season.

  • A fatal size 3 was reported from the Lake Louise area on April 22nd, in a particularly thin and rocky area with a 50 cm deep snowpack. All information can be found here.

  • The Western Purcells have reported recent human-triggered activity, including a fatal size 3 on April 15th in the Thunderwater Lake area near a rocky feature, the avalanche was 40-100 cm deep. More information can be found here.

Snowpack Summary

Mild temperatures and sunshine have created a surface crust that exists on all aspects on sun-affected slopes and into the alpine on shaded slopes. Moist snow likely remains at low elevations on all aspects.

Recent wind-affected storm snow then sits overs a variety of crust, surface hoar, and/or facet layers buried from mid-March through early April. These layers have produced recent avalanche activity in nearby regions and continue to be monitored here.

The mid snowpack is generally settled and strong. However, the lower snowpack includes a widespread layer of large, weak facets and/or depth hoar crystals. This weak layer has been responsible for several very large and destructive avalanches throughout the season.

Continued warm temperatures this week are expected to stress these buried weak layers, making them more sensitive to triggers. We are concerned about the potential for very large avalanches on the basal facet layer as temperatures remain warm overnight, limiting recovery within the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries. Light westerly wind. Freezing levels remain above 1500 m overnight.

Monday

Clouds clear in the afternoon with light westerly winds. Isolated flurries with light rain at lower elevations. Freezing levels reach 2200 m.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud with light westerly winds. No snowfall is expected. Freezing levels rise to 2200m.

Wednesday

Mostly clear skies with moderate westerly winds. No snowfall expected.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
  • The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.