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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 3rd, 2022–Apr 4th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

The ongoing storm will continue to develop touchy storm slabs on Monday. Large, natural avalanches should be expected and extremely conservative terrain selection is essential including avoiding exposure to overhead hazards.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

A major storm system is expected to continue to impact the region until Monday night and may end up lingering into Tuesday morning. 

Sunday Night: Snowfall 40-60 cm, strong to extreme SW wind, freezing level low around 1000 m/high around 1300 m. 

Monday: Snowfall 15-30 cm, strong to extreme SW wind, freezing level high around 1200 m. 

Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud with potential for lingering flurries in the morning, strong NW wind easing through the day, freezing level high around 1200 m.

Wednesday: Mainly sunny, light to moderate SW wind, freezing level high around 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, a ski cut triggered a very small dry loose avalanche with about 5 cm of new snow sliding on a firm melt-freeze crust. In wind loaded terrain, about 15 cm of new snow was observed to be cracking while travelling. 

Snowpack Summary

As of Sunday afternoon, weather stations were showing 20-40 cm of new storm snow accumulation. The storm snow has buried a widespread, supportive melt-freeze crust. Strong southwest wind will be redistributing this new snow in exposed high elevation terrain forming touchy wind slabs. Lower elevations are expected to continue to see wet snow or rainfall, and wet loose avalanche should be expected. 

The middle and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.