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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 15th, 2022–Apr 16th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Monitor surface conditions as you move through aspects and gain elevation. Watch for dense, wind affected snow at higher elevations and moist or wet surface snow if the sun starts to shine. 

Check out the new forecaster blog if you're considering big lines this weekend.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that cornice falls are particularly difficult to forecast. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

A cool and unsettled flow will affect coastal regions into the weekend. Convective flurries are expected in isolated areas and may be heavy at times. 

FRIDAY NIGHT: Flurries continue into the evening with 3 cm expected at the most. Freezing levels drop to valley bottom overnight, and winds remain light from the east.

SATURDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with light easterly winds. Freezing levels rise to 1400 m. Flurries bring trace amounts of snow during the day and around 3 cm overnight.

SUNDAY: Clearing skies with increasing southeasterly winds. Freezing levels rise to 1600 m. Isolated flurries are expected to bring trace amounts. 

MONDAY: Snow begins in the morning, with 5 cm expected over the day. Winds increase to strong from the south. Freezing levels reach 1500 m. 

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday a natural cornice fall was observed, that did not trigger an avalanche on the slope below. Further details are unknown. On Tuesday, size 1 and 2 natural and skier triggered wind slab avalanches were reported. These occurred at higher elevations on west facing slopes from the recent easterly winds.  

Looking forward, avalanche activity is unlikely given the current cool conditions with little snowfall expected each day. Always consider the possibility of pockets of wind slabs in steep exposed terrain, cornice failures around ridgelines, and wet loose avalanches if the sun is out.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 30 cm of dry, wind-affected snow sits above a crust or hard surfaces at higher elevations. Small wind slabs may be found at high elevations from recent easterly winds. A melt freeze crust likely sits on the surface at lower elevations and on sun affected slopes. Periods of sun may soften or break down the crust throughout the day.

Various melt-freeze crusts exist in the upper to middle snowpack, which reports suggest are bonding well. The lower snowpack is considered strong and well settled at this time. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.