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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 9th, 2022–Dec 10th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Fresh snow and strong winds bring potential for new and reactive slabs to form. Watch for changing conditions as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Stick to conservative terrain and verify conditions as you travel.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported, but field observations are limited this time of year. We expect natural and human triggered avalanches to have occurred within the new snow, primarily in wind loaded features.

If you head into the backcountry please submit a MIN report! They are super helpful in the early season when snowpack information is limited.

Snowpack Summary

By Saturday morning around 20 cm is likely to have accumulated, adding to the 10-30 cm received this week. Strong to extreme southerly winds will shift this snow into slabs on north and east facing terrain.

New snow may sit over a crust at lower elevations. This crust exists on south facing slopes as well, however overnight winds will likely redistribute snow and expose the crust.

Over 90 cm of snow can be found in the alpine, with wind-loaded areas up to 150 cm deep. Many lower elevation areas remain below threshold for avalanches with early season hazards, however this may change as snow accumulates.

Our field team describes conditions in the Mt Cain area in this MIN report.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Strong southwesterly winds overnight with cloudy skies. 20 cm of snow expected in most areas, with up to 40 cm possible around Sutton Pass and other western slopes. Freezing levels 500-800 m.

Saturday

15-25 cm of new snow. Moderate southerly winds ease over the day. Alpine high temperatures of 0. Freezing level rising to 1000 m, peaking in the afternoon.

Sunday

Clearing skies, no precipitation expected. Winds switch to light northwest. Alpine temperature high of -1. Freezing level around 900 m.

Monday

Mostly clear skies with light northwest winds. No precipitation expected. Alpine temperatures of -1. Freezing levels 800-900m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.