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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 13th, 2023–Mar 14th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard.

Overnight, storm snow and strong southwest winds will create very dangerous avalanche conditions for Tuesday. Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday explosives control saw only a few small dry loose avalanches to size one.

With +25 cm of snow expected tonight and strong winds, we expect backcountry users will see evidence of a natural storm slab avalanche cycle that occurred during the night as they move through the terrain tomorrow.

If you head out in the backcountry, let us know what you are seeing by submitting a report to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

By Tuesday morning +25 cm of storm snow overlies a variety of surfaces including small pockets of wind slab on exposed south and west slopes, hard wind-affected surfaces in open areas, a sun crust on steep solar aspects, and facetted snow in sheltered areas.

The mid-snowpack is generally well-settled. The lower snowpack includes a layer of weak sugary crystals near the ground. These facets are slowly gaining strength and have not produced recent avalanche activity. We continue to track the layer and watch for any signs that it could wake up and produce very large avalanches.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Cloudy with mixed precipitation, 12-25 cm of new snow at upper elevations. Alpine temperatures reach a low of -6 °C. Ridge wind 50-70 km/h from the southwest. Freezing levels slowly lower from 1800 meters to valley bottom by morning.

Tuesday

Mainly cloud with isolated flurries, trace accumulation. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -4 °C. Ridge wind eases from 50 to 30 km/h from the southwest. Freezing level 1100 meters.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -3 °C. Ridge wind 10 km/h from the west increasing to 40 km/h in the afternoon. Freezing level 1300 meters.

Thursday

Mainly sunny. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -2 °C. Ridge wind east 10 km/h. Freezing levels rise to 1500 meters.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.