Avalanche Forecast

Moderate

• We are confident that there are persistent slabs in the snowpack, but uncertain about how likely they are to trigger.
• We are uncertain due to the variability of wind effect on the snowpack.

On Saturday new snow and wind triggered a natural avalanche cycle. A field team observed a size 2.5 from the Frequent flyer path, which stepped down to the Jan 26th layer on the fan, as well as several size 2s from the N side of Cheops. There were also several size 1.5-2s in the steep terrain of the highway corridor.

On Friday, a team remotely triggered 2 size 1.5s between 1600-1850m, on the Jan 26th layer. This was in infrequently travelled terrain below the Avalanche Glacier.

A sneaky 20-30cm of new snow fell Saturday, bringing this weeks totals up to 50-60cm.

Gusty alpine winds continue to build fresh windslabs in exposed terrain.

There are several crusts in the upper snowpack from the springlike temps and sunshine we've had in the past 2 weeks.

The Jan 26th layer of surface hoar, facets, and a crust, is buried down 45-80cm. The largest surface hoar is preserved in sheltered areas below treeline.

Below this the snowpack is well settled/strong.

A week ridge brings clearing skies and valley fog.

Tonight: Clear periods. Alpine low -10°C. Light West ridgetop winds.

Sun: Sunny periods. High -10 °C. Freezing level (FZL) valley bottom. Light SW wind.

Mon: Isolated flurries. Low -11 °C, High -7 °C. Gusty moderate SW wind.

Tue: Flurries (3-5cm). Low -17 °C, High -9 °C. Light variable wind.

• Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
• Approach steep and open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, as buried surface hoar may exist.
• Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.