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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 19th, 2026–Mar 20th, 2026

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Moyie.

Avoid avalanche terrain and exposure to overhead avalanche terrain.

Heavy rain and high freezing levels will continue to create very dangerous conditions.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain about forecast rain amounts.
  • We are uncertain about how persistent slabs will react to the forecast weather.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, numerous and very large avalanches (up to size 2.5-3) were reported near Fernie, indicating a widespread natural cycle. These included cornice falls, wet slabs and loose wet avalanches from all aspects and elevations. Persistent slabs (2 m deep crown) and a glide slab were also observed.

Looking ahead, natural avalanches are expected at all elevations during the ongoing warm storm, particularly in areas where avalanche paths have not yet released.

Snowpack Summary

High freezing levels and heavy rain are continuing to soak the snowpack up to the mountain tops. Cornices are large and looming and are weakening with the ongoing warming.

Below this, a thick crust is found on all aspects and is buried down 50 cm. The thickness of the crust (from 1 to 10 cm) depends on elevation.

Multiple buried weak layers of surface hoar and/or crusts still exist in the top 120 cm of the snowpack and will likely become active with the additional load from heavy rain.

The mid and lower snowpack is well settled and strong in most areas.

The lower snowpack is soaked at lower elevations.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night
Cloudy. 10 to 15 mm of rain at treeline. 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 2700 m.
Friday
Cloudy. 20 to 30 mm of rain at treeline. 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 2700 m.

Saturday
Cloudy. 1 to 3 mm of rain or snow at treeline. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 2000 m.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy. 1 to 3 cm of snow at treeline. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain; avalanches may run surprisingly far.
  • Wet avalanche activity may step down to deeply buried persistent weak layers at lower elevations.
  • Cornice failures could trigger large and destructive avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.