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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 19th, 2024–Jan 20th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Heavy snow and rain have impacted an unusually cold and dry snowpack. Raise your guard anywhere the storm snow remains dry, it is likely bonding poorly to the underlying surface.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, our Field Team skier triggered several wind slabs (size 1-2) from alpine and treeline terrain near Mount Cokely. Read more in this MIN.

We suspect a widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred on Friday with heavy loading from snow, rain and wind.

Looking forward to Saturday, the avalanche problem is likely to present as wet loose avalanches in steep terrain. If the storm snow remains dry, storm slabs may be reactive to human triggering.

Snowpack Summary

Rain has impacted the snowpack in most areas. Dry snow may prevail in the alpine in the higher peak and will have been redistributed by strong southerly winds.

A weak facet/crust layer can be found down 50 to 100 cm. The remainder of the snowpack is strong, with numerous hard melt-freeze crusts.

Treeline snow depth ranges from 100 to 180 cm. Snow depth diminishes rapidly at low elevations where there has been more rainfall.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Cloudy with rainfall, 5 to 15 mm. Alpine wind southwest 30 to 50 km/h. Treeline temperature 3 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy with light rain. Alpine wind 10 to 30 km/h from the southeast. Treeline temperature 3 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy with mixed precipitation, 2 to 15 cm of new snow accumulation at higher elevations. Alpine wind southwest 30 to 50 km/h. Treeline temperature 1 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Monday

Cloudy with mixed precipitation, 5 cm of new snow accumulation at higher elevations. Alpine wind southwest 15 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level 1500 m,

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.