Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 18th, 2024–Jan 19th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Heavy loading from new snow, wind, and rain will create very dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid avalanche terrain and exposure to overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, skiers triggered several storm slab avalanches (size 1-2) from alpine and treeline terrain near Mount Arrowsmith.

We suspect a natural avalanche cycle will occur on Thursday night and into Friday as freezing levels rise. Storm or persistent slab activity can be expected where the new snow remains dry. As snow transitions to rain, a widespread wet loose avalanche cycle is expected.

Snowpack Summary

Overnight snowfall will continue on Friday with 20 to 50 cm of new snow expected. Precipitation will transition to rain on Friday, soaking the upper snowpack. In the high alpine, snow may remain dry and will be redistributed by strong southerly winds.

A weak facet/crust layer can be found down 50 to 100 cm. The remainder of the snowpack is strong, with numerous hard melt-freeze crusts.

Treeline snow depth ranges from 100 to 180 cm. Snow depth diminishes rapidly at low elevations where there has been more rainfall.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Cloudy with snowfall, 15 to 40 cm of accumulation. Alpine wind southeast 40 to 60 km/h. Treeline temperature rising to -4 C.

Friday

Cloudy with snowfall turning to rain in the morning. 10 to 50 mm of precipitation, heaviest on the west island. Alpine wind south 50 to 80 km/h. Treeline temperature rises to 3 °C, freezing level rising to 2300 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with light precipitation falling as rain below 1800 m, up to 5 mm. Alpine wind south 15 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature 1 °C, freezing level around 1800 m.

Sunday

Cloudy with light precipitation falling as rain below 1800 m, up to 5 mm. Alpine wind south 15 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature 1 °C, freezing level around 1800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for rapidly changing conditions during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeply buried weak layers resulting in very large avalanches.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.