Avalanche Forecast

Saturday night: Clear, moderate northeast wind, alpine high temperature -22 C, freezing level at valley bottom.

Sunday: Sunny, light northeast wind, alpine high temperature -15 C, freezing level at 600 m.

Monday: Sunny, light north wind, alpine high temperature -10 C, freezing level at 1000 m.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, light northerly wind, alpine high temperature -7 C, freezing level 1000 m.

A natural avalanche cycle occurred most likely during the storm on Tuesday with avalanches up to size 3. No new avalanche activity was reported in the last couple days. 

Moderate to strong northeast wind has redistributed snow and formed wind slabs at all elevations. The snow surface varies from soft low density snow to wind pressed at wind exposed terrain. 

A weak layer of surface hoar may be found 50-100 cm deep. Reports indicate that this layer may be absent in the northern tip of the region (see this MIN from Sugarbowl). However, observers have identified the layer in snow profiles from Barkerville to Valemount (see this MIN from Mt Greenbury, this MIN from the Trophy Mountains, and this MIN from Allan Creek). Sheltered north, northeast, and east facing slopes near treeline are the most suspect.

This persistent slab problem has transitioned into a low probability/high consequence scenario. If triggered, avalanches will be large and getting caught could have serious consequences. Managing this problem requires a patient and diligent mindset, implemented by avoiding suspect slopes and maintaining conservative terrain margins. 

• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
• Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.