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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 18th, 2020–Mar 19th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Rogers Pass Discovery Centre will be closed starting tomorrow until further notice.  Today is the last day daily winter permits will be issued.  The winter permit system will remain in effect.

Weather Forecast

We are still sitting under a ridge of high pressure.  Expect a sunny day with some clouds, alpine temperatures will reach -5.  Freezing level is forecast at 1500 m today.  Slopes facing the sun will feel warm this afternoon, especially if winds are calm.  Winds will be light to 20 km/h.

Snowpack Summary

Cold nights and warm days have built a crust on slopes facing the sun. Expect this crust to break down with daytime warming. Open slopes at upper elevations are very wind effected from the strong NE winds Fri-Saturday. The Feb 22 PWL is down 90-130cm and consists of 3-7mm surface hoar on all aspects up to 2450m as well as a crust on solar aspects

Avalanche Summary

Several small-large (up to size 2.5) loose snow avalanches occurred on solar aspects on Monday.

A large (size 2.5) persistent slab avalanche occurred naturally overnight Saturday in the Observatory path (N aspect at Treeline in the Abbott winter prohibited area), this avalanche initiated as a windslab and stepped down to the Feb. 22nd PWL- see MIN.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.