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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2021–Dec 16th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Don't be surprised by the Dec 1st crust/persistent slab!

Approach steep and convex terrain with caution, especially at tree line.

Weather Forecast

Cooling temperatures, flurries and light winds over the next couple days. A frontal system will usher in weekend snow.

Tonight: Cloudy, Trace amounts of snow, Alp temp -13*C, light SW winds

Thurs: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries, Trace snow, Alp high -11*C, light/mod W winds

Fri: Mix of sun and cloud 4cm, Alp high -14*C, light W winds

Snowpack Summary

Cooling temperatures will start to facet the new snow from the start of the week and break down wind slabs. Look for wind slabs created by extreme S'ly winds on Saturday in exposed, Alpine and Tree-line features. These will be buried by ~15cm of loose dry snow. The Dec 1 crust is ~15cm thick at 1900m, buried by ~1m and found up to 2300m.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, 5 artillery rounds produced 1, size 2 avalanche from a steep, N facing start zone off Mt. Macdonald.

A MIN report on Tuesday described a wind slab in the alpine on lee features reacting to a skier load.

We observed some natural avalanche, up to size 2.0 on Monday night and Tuesday trigged by new snow and strong winds.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.