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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 25th, 2021–Mar 26th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Expect drastic changes in avalanche conditions as you gain elevation and transition to open wind affected terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, 30-40 km/h northwest wind, treeline temperatures drop to -10 C.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with some light flurries in the afternoon, 40-50 km/h west wind, treeline temperatures around -6 C.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries and up to 5 cm of snow, 30-50 km/h southwest wind, freezing level climbing to 1500 m, treeline temperatures around -4 C.

SUNDAY: Flurries with 10-20 cm of new snow, 50 km/h south wind, freezing level around 1700 m with treeline temperatures around -2 C.

Avalanche Summary

Heavy snowfall on Wednesday likely resulted in natural avalanche activity. Field observations are limited, but the North Rockies field team observed one natural size 2 storm slab avalanche at Sugarbowl in below treeline terrain on Wednesday (MIN report). Skiers near Blue River also ski cut some size 1 storm slabs.

Storm slabs have stabilized since Wednesday, but are still possible to trigger at upper elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Upper elevations have 15-35 cm of settling storm snow, while below 1500 m the surface is moist or crusty. Steady west wind has likely formed thick wind slabs in lee terrain features. Slightly beneath this new snow is a widespread crust layer from the mid-March warmup. While we don't have recent observations of this layer, we suspect the snow has bonded to this interface.

It appears persistent weak layers have gone inactive over the past week. We had been concerned about a weak facet layer from the mid-February cold snap that is now roughly 150 cm deep. This layer resulted in a few large cornice triggered avalanches in the first half of March, but recent weather patterns have helped this layer heal.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with aspect and elevation.
  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Caution around convexities or sharp changes in terrain.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.